No. 9 Penn State at Maryland: Expert score predictions as Nittany Lions are back on the road (2024)

MARK BRENNAN (Lions247 Staff)

COMMENT: The scheduling gods have been good to Penn State all season, and that was most definitely the case when the Nittany Lions drew struggling Indiana at home last week. Nursing a vicious hangover from the previous game’s crushing loss at Ohio State, James Franklin’s team needed a pair of late scores to beat the Hoosiers, 33-24.

With that flushed from the system, the focus now turns to a Maryland outfit that has lost three straight and yet features as much athletic ability of any PSU opponent to date … bar none. On the road, no less. A second-straight lackluster performance, and the Lions will come away from this one with their second loss of the year. But I don’t see that happening.

Manny Diaz’s defense has been so dominating this season that I think it is fair to classify the unfocused showing against Indiana as an aberration. If the unit plays anywhere close to its potential, I don’t see the Terrapins scoring enough points to beat the Nittany Lions.

Offensively, Penn State has to continue to protect the ball. At this point of the season, the ground game obviously is what it is — non-explosive. But I expect the Lions to get enough out of the aerial attack to get the job done against a Maryland defense that has allowed 791 passing yards, six touchdowns and only one interception during its three-game skid.

BOLD PREDICTION: Franklin keeps threatening to show an offensive package where Drew Allar and backup QB Beau Pribula are on the field at the same time. If the goal is to give a certain team from Ann Arbor something extra to chew on heading into next week’s game, this is obviously the last opportunity to get that on tape.

PREDICTION: Penn State 31, Maryland 17 (PSU -14, 48 total)

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TYLER DONOHUE (Lions247 Staff)

COMMENT: Entering October, this matchup projected as a potential showcase game for the Maryland football program and a possible Top 25 showdown. Instead, the Terps have tumbled to three consecutive losses, including a pair of teams (Illinois and Northwestern) we saw Penn State beat by at least three scores on the road. Thus, I think it’s fair to wonder what kind of “juice” we’ll see Maryland bring to the field Saturday. The Terps have been mercurial in this matchup over the years, prepared to push PSU to the brink on occasion but essentially no-showing on others. Penn State is facing an identity crisis of sorts following the last 120 minutes of football, but Maryland may have lost its identity altogether in October and I expect PSU to take advantage, looking like a more motivated squad (particularly on defense) than the one that survived Indiana. Drew Allar’s late momentum from last Saturday carries over as he delivers his best road performance to date. The defense secures three second-half sacks to keep Taulia Tagovailoa uncomfortable when it matters most.

BOLD PREDICTION: For a second straight trip to College Park, Penn State seals the victory with a red zone interception. Johnny Dixon gets it done this time.

PREDICTION: Penn State 31, Maryland 17 (PSU -14, 48 total)

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DANIEL GALLEN (Lions247 Staff)

COMMENT: Penn State teams under coach James Franklin might get caught letting losses linger a little longer than it should, but it feels like it rarely gets caught looking ahead. So after Indiana used the post-Ohio State hangover to put a little scare into the Nittany Lions a week ago, I don’t expect the team to overlook this weekend’s game at Maryland with a season-defining tilt against Michigan looming a week later.

In fact, I think we’re going to see what many of us expected to see against Indiana: A team that takes out its frustrations and turns in the type of dominant performance we saw earlier this season, especially defensively.

Maryland is a team in free-fall right now. The Terps had a 17-10 lead over Ohio State in the third quarter on Oct. 7. They lost that game, 37-17. Then, they lost to Illinois. And then, they lost to Northwestern. An assistant coach was arrested for DUI during the bye week. A high-profile transfer wide receiver left the team this week. It’s something we’ve seen from Maryland before over the course of a long season. Is coach Michael Locksley the one to pull the Terps out of this dive? It doesn’t help that Maryland will be wearing its ugliest uniform set since the ill-fated 2011 combination that featured gradients and shell print.

I’m not too sure about that. And I think it’ll be a re-focused Penn State group that comes into SECU Stadium and leaves with a win. The defense’s issues against Indiana were an anomaly, and that unit understands it needs to return to its standard. It expects to do that, and defensive coordinator Manny Diazshould make sure that happens.

The bigger questions surround the offense and whether the ending to the Indiana game with quarterback Drew Allar’s long touchdown pass to wide receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith serves as a launching pad for Penn State. Does that pass give Allar a level of confidence to make tougher throws that seemed to be missing? Do the Nittany Lions use it as an opportunity to be different? Or do we see more of the same? I think that’ll be something to track Saturday.

Overall, Penn State is still playing to be in contention for the Big Ten East and the College Football Playoff if it wins the games it needs to and maybe gets a little bit of help. Maryland is trying to avoid an embarrassing slide and claw to bowl eligibility. Things point to the Nittany Lions taking care of business in a big way here.

BOLD PREDICTION: Penn State has leaned heavily on its 12 personnel sets (one running back, two tight ends, two wide receivers) recently, and with starting wide receiver Harrison Wallace potentially missing time, that grouping should once again be prominent for Franklin and offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich. That means we’ll see a heavy dose of Theo Johnson and Tyler Warren, and the two fourth-year tight ends will combine for at least 12 catches for at least 100 yards and at least two touchdowns. The most combined catches for Johnson and Warren in a game this season are eight (twice), their most combined yards are 86 and their most combined touchdowns are three. In an effort to make up for a hobbled or absent Wallace and generate plays in the passing game for Allar, we see lots of Johnson and Warren (don’t forget about Khalil Dinkins, either).

PREDICTION: Penn State 34, Maryland 14 (PSU -20, 48 total)

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TYLER CALVARUSO (Lions247 Recruiting Expert)

COMMENT: This would've profiled as an even more intriguing matchup at this time last month when Maryland and Penn State were both undefeated. The Terps have been sputtering with losses in their last three, and even though they are at home this weekend, Penn State should be able to travel to College Park and make it four consecutive defeats for Mike Locksley's squad. The key won't just be Drew Allar making throws like the one he did to win the Nittany Lions the game last weekend, but also how Penn State's defense responds after its first "down" performance of the season — down being relative to the elite level the unit has performed at throughout the year.

PREDICTION: Penn State 28, Maryland 17 (PSU -11, 45 total)

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BRIAN DOHN (247Sports National Recruiting Expert)

COMMENT: Penn State had a tougher-than-expected bounce back game after the Ohio State loss but pulled away and beat Indiana. Now comes a trip to Maryland a week before the Nittany Lions can remain in the College Football Playoff race with a home showdown against Michigan. The trap game aspect does not apply but PSU should not expect a walkover.

The Terps have talent at the skill position and quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has the potential to have big games, but turnovers have been an issue. He is coming off a three-touchdown, two-turnover shocking loss at Northwestern. Maryland will run the ball and surpassed 100 yards in all but one of its games, so Penn State will have to slow that down or be susceptible to play action.

But the Terps also are not playing as well as they did earlier in the season and are riding a three-game losing streak, which included stunning defeats against Illinois (home) and Northwestern (road).

PREDICTION: Penn State 31, Maryland 20 (PSU -11, 51 total)

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JEFF ERMANN (Inside MD Sports — 247SportsMaryland Site)

COMMENT: The biggest X-factor is Maryland's energy level. Despite having two weeks to stew on a bad loss to Illinois,the Terrapinslooked uninspired against Northwestern. Whether they come out fired up or lackadaisical will tell us early about whether they'll have a chance. I think Maryland will be motivated, in backs-against-the-wall, "save our season" mode, but it's not guaranteed based on the performance against Northwestern. I'll go Penn State 28, Maryland 21, but I reserve the right to change that prediction afterward if it's a blowout.

PREDICTION:Penn State 28, Maryland 21 (PSU -7, 49 total)

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KEITH “GOON” CONLIN (Former Player)

COMMENT: Maryland scores early and Penn State is frustratingly sluggish again. But the horses take over and the Terrapins quit, as usual. Never forget the non-handshake of 2014. No love here.

PREDICTION: Penn State 52, Maryland 14 (PSU -38, 66 total)

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ED001 (Special Guest)

COMMENT: Penn State travels to College Park to take on a 5-3 Maryland team that has lost three games in a row. The Lions are coming off lethargic efforts on both sides of the ball as they held on to beat a bad Indiana team. Can the offense find a rhythm and move the ball consistently? Will Drew Allar try to stretch the field more often after his late-game success against the Hoosiers? Will Manny Diaz’s defense show up inspired from the first snap? The Lions do enough to hold down the turnover prone Terps offense and the offense shows improvement in the second half.

PREDICTION: Penn State 35, Maryland 17 (PSU -18, 52 total)

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MARK HARRINGTON (PlaybookMark)

COMMENT: Penn State is a team still struggling with its identity. Given this, I think we see another slow start for the Lions, which will allow for some early success for Maryland. But with the defense getting back into form, once the offense settles in the Lions should be able to put drives together and build consistency.

PREDICTION: Penn State 24, Maryland 17 (PSU -7, 41 total)

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SCOTT COLE (Psu96)

COMMENT: James Franklin always seems to have his team ready to deliver a beatdown against Maryland, but last week's slog to victory against Indiana gives me pause. The Terps have lost three in a row, but will be looking at this game as their Super Bowl most likely, so the defense needs to bring the heat early and often to force Taulia Tagovailoa into mistakes. On the offensive side of the ball, it would be great to see Mike Yurcich add some variety to the game plan and force the Terrapin defense to defend the width and length of the field. Penn State can out-talent Maryland, but the Nittany Lions need to be a lot more mentally prepared for this one than they were against Indiana.

PREDICTION: Penn State 31, Maryland 17 (PSU -14, 48 total)

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TOM HOFFMAN (underscoreTom)

COMMENT: Well it happened. Drew Allar threw his first interception. He recovered quickly and looked overjoyed after the game. Is this a "finally got that splinter pulled out of my finger" moment? His road performance woes better hope so. The defense had some rare mental lapses against Indiana but I can't imagine that continues into another game. Penn State has sacked Taulia Tagovailoa 10 times in the last two games while limiting him to just one touchdown. I think that continues, but the pains away from home also continue.

PREDICTION: Penn State 27, Maryland 20 (PSU -7, 47 total)

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DONOVAN NEAL (PSUMtnBike)

COMMENT: If Maryland wasn't performing just as poorly as Penn State has been lately, I'd take the Terps. Even with a few mistakes from the Nittany Lions, this Penn State defense should be the difference in the game.

PREDICTION: Penn State 31, Maryland 17 (PSU -14, 48 total)

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NIRAV DALAL (PlaybookNirav)

COMMENT: Maryland looked like a legitimate Big Ten team when it held a 17-10 lead against Ohio State in the third quarter. The Terrapins gave up 27 straight points to fall to the Buckeyes, then lost to Illinois and Northwestern. Maryland can’t protect Taulia Tagovailoa and that’s the big difference in this ugly, low scoring game.

PREDICTION: Penn State 20, Maryland 13 (PSU -7, 33 total)

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ROB RIVA (rriva)

COMMENT: The last two weeks have created more questions than answers for Penn State football. For purposes of this weekend’s game, the most prevalent question mark is whether Drew Allar can look anything other than adequate at best and below average at worst on the road. The good news is that Maryland seems to be falling neatly into its annual profile of paper tiger, with a strong start of the season against meh opponents followed by unmitigated disaster once the half-way point hits (sound familiar?). While Penn State shouldn’t be beating its chest, and despite legitimate concerns particularly on offense, I think Maryland’s anticipated tailspin heading into the back end of the schedule is the difference here and the Nittany Lions walk away with an ugly win — but a win nonetheless.

PREDICTION: Penn State: 24, Maryland 10 (PSU -14, 34 total)

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LIONS247 / 247SPORTS STAFF

BRENNAN: Penn State 31, Maryland 17 (PSU -14, 48 total)

DONOHUE: Penn State 31, Maryland 17 (PSU -14, 48 total)

GALLEN: Penn State 34, Maryland 14 (PSU -20, 48 total)

CALVARUSO: Penn State 28, Maryland 17 (PSU -11, 45 total)

DOHN: Penn State 31, Maryland 20 (PSU -11, 51 total)

ERMANN:Penn State 28, Maryland 21 (PSU -7, 49 total)

STAFF AVERAGES: Penn State 30.5, Maryland 17.7 (PSU -12.8, 48.2 total)

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CONTRIBUTORS

GOON: Penn State 52, Maryland 14 (PSU -38, 66 total)

ED: Penn State 35, Maryland 17 (PSU -18, 52 total)

HARRINGTON: Penn State 24, Maryland 17 (PSU -7, 41 total)

COLE: Penn State 31, Maryland 17 (PSU -14, 48 total)

HOFFMAN: Penn State 27, Maryland 20 (PSU -7, 47 total)

NEAL: Penn State 31, Maryland 17 (PSU -14, 48 total)

DALAL: Penn State 20, Maryland 13 (PSU -7, 33 total)

RIVA: Penn State: 24, Maryland 10(PSU -14, 34 total)

CONTRIBUTOR AVERAGES: Penn State 30.5, Maryland 15.6 (PSU -14.9, 46.1 total)

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OVERALL AVERAGES: Penn State 30.5, Maryland 16.5 (PSU -14.0, 47.0 total)

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Picked Penn State:Everybody

Picked Maryland:Nobody

Widest Margin For Penn State: Goon (PSU -38)

Closest Margin For Penn State: Ermann, Harrington, Hoffman, Dalal (PSU -7)

Caesars Sportsbook Line (Oct. 30): PSU -10.5

Picked Penn State To Cover: Brennan, Donohue, Gallen, Calvaruso, Dohn, Goon, Ed, Cole, Neal, Riva

Picked Penn State NOT To Cover: Ermann, Harrington, Hoffman, Dalal

Push: NA

Caesars Sportsbook Total (Oct. 30): 50.0

Highest Total:Goon (66)

Lowest Total:Dalal (33)

Over: Dohn, Goon, Ed

Under: Brennan, Donohue, Gallen, Ermann, Harrington, Cole, Hoffman, Neal, Dalal, Riva

Push: NA

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Caesars Sportsbook Line (Oct. 25): PSU -32.0

Actual Spread: Penn State 33, Indiana 24 (PSU -9)

Closest To Actual Spread: Dohn, Goon, Cole (PSU -28)

Winners Against The Spread: Dohn, Goon, Cole, Dalal, Riva

Losers Against The Spread: Brennan, Donohue, Gallen, Calvaruso, Kelly, Ed, Harrington

Push: Hoffman, Neal

Caesars Sportsbook Total (Oct. 25): 44.5

Actual Total: 57 (Over)

Closest To The Total: Gallen, Harrington (58)

Winners Against The Total: Brennan, Gallen, Calvaruso, Dohn, Kelly, Ed, Harrington, Cole, Dalal

Losers Against The Total: Donohue, Goon, Hoffman, Neil, Riva

Push: None

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MONEY LINE (ALPHABETICAL)

Dohn: 8-0

Hoffman: 8-0

Brennan: 7-1

Calvaruso: 7-1

Cole: 7-1

Dalal: 7-1

Donohue: 7-1

Ed: 7-1

Gallen: 7-1

Goon: 7-1

Harrington: 7-1

Neal: 7-1

Riva: 7-1

Visiting Media: 7-1

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AGAINST THE SPREAD (ALPHABETICAL)

Donohue: 6-2

Goon: 6-2

Ed: 6-2

Riva: 6-2

Brennan: 5-3

Harrington: 5-3

Hoffman: 5-3

Neal: 5-3

Gallen: 5-3

Calvaruso: 4-4

Cole: 5-3

Dohn: 5-3

Dalal: 5-3

Visiting Media: 4-4

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