In the latest fantasy baseball mailbag, we explore the future paths of some struggling stars, get into the San Diego bullpen, theorize on “winning” trades… and more. So much more. Pull up a chair, pour yourself a drink, and gather ’round as we open up letters from readers…
Is Michael Harris’ slow start similar in the underlying numbers to last year, or should I expect the slowness to continue? – Aaron T.
Harris has been slumping in May, similar to the rest of his teammates. There’s nothing noticeable in the underlying numbers to show a big dip. The strikeout rate is 21.8%, which is 3.1% higher than last season and the walk rate has increased from 4.6% to 5.5%. Harris is swinging and missing more and chasing more pitches; in fact, he is in the first percentile of chase rate. Harris isn’t hitting a lot of fly balls and when he has, they aren’t hit very hard. The good news is Harris has been hitting leadoff against right-handed pitchers with Ronald Acuna out for the season. He will hit lower against lefties, but that could help his RBIs when the Braves lineup gets going. Expect Harris to be much better the rest of the way.
Should I try to buy low on Austin Riley? – D B.
Riley has been one of the biggest disappointments drafted in the first two rounds. The Braves’ offense has struggled compared to expectations, especially over the last month. Riley left a game against the Mets a few weeks ago with side tightness and missed 13 games without going on the injured list. It could still be an issue, but the overall profile doesn’t show major concerns. The strikeout and walk rates are similar to last season. The hard hit rate is down from 49.2% to 48.4%. Riley has a career 19.4% HR/FB rate and this season it is 5.8%. Riley has at least 33 home runs the last three seasons and has been one of the most consistent performers. Outside of the left side tightness, there’s nothing to suggest he will continue to lack this much power. This is the time to buy low on Riley.
Is it worth still holding on to Kodai Senga or letting him go to the vultures of free agency? – Austin N.
Based on the question, I will assume there are no IL spots. During drafts, too many take the optimistic approach toward injuries and draft players earlier than they should. This was the case with Senga. The timetable was cloudy back in March and he was drafted with hopeful expectations. Always assume the worst when it comes to injury outlines. There will be instances when the player beats the initial timeline or comes back around the target date. In most cases, it doesn’t happen and there are setbacks, especially with pitchers.
Senga was supposed to be back by now and he’s not close. He had shoulder fatigue after throwing sessions in February and an MRI revealed a capsule strain in his throwing shoulder. Two weeks ago, he had right triceps tightness. An MRI on May 24 showed nerve inflammation in his right elbow and he had a cortisone shot. It’s still possible for Senga to come back and contribute in the final months, but if he has been taking up a dead spot on your roster, it’s a problem. In one of my leagues in late March, Senga went in round 16 of a 15-team league. I didn’t even think about taking him at the time. I drafted Kyle Bradish in round 23 and it has worked out so far, but even if it didn’t, the significantly lower draft cost wasn’t going to ruin me even if Bradish didn’t throw a pitch.
Just be careful when drafting injured players in the first half of the draft if the timetable is unclear.
Advertisem*nt
As for holding on, I am fine letting him go if you need the roster spot. There are so many injuries and if Senga is preventing you from adding a player, it might not be worth the wait. It also depends on where you are in the standings. The lower in the standings, the less time you have to wait.
Thoughts on the closer situation in San Diego? Robert Suarez has it on lock but Jeremiah Estrada has been lights out. Is there a world (sans injury) where Estrada becomes the preferred reliever? – Adam C.
Estrada has been one of the best stories in the early season. He recently struck out 13 consecutive hitters; the most in the expansion era. Think the Cubs could use him? The Cubs waived him in November and the Padres signed him. He made the trip to Korea for the first two games of the season and was then sent to Triple-A before being called up in late April. In 18 innings, he has allowed seven hits, one run, walked six and struck out 30 for a 0.50 ERA and 0.72 WHIP. He averages 97 miles per hour with his fastball and has a 50% whiff rate on his splitter. It’s unlikely he closes with the way Suarez is pitching, though. There’s no reason for the Padres to remove Suarez since he’s getting the job done. Suarez doesn’t get the swings and misses Estrada does, but he has converted all 17 saves. In 26 innings, he has a 0.69 ERA and 0.73 WHIP and allowed 13 hits, two runs, walked six and struck out 24. Suarez had allowed a 12.5% barrel rate, but it would take multiple awful outings for Estrada to close. Estrada has value in deeper leagues and will be a closer in the future.
Who should I trade: Chris Bassitt or Reynaldo Lopez? – Christopher V.
Based on this question, you have the two ranked closely. One of the mistakes people make when trading is trying to win the trade. The goal of a trade is to improve your team. One could technically lose the trade in the eyes of most people, but the trade makes your team better and that’s always the goal. Test the market to see which pitcher is more valuable and brings you back what you need. Lopez has been a big surprise with a 1.73 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He has a 3.71 xERA and hasn’t shown success in the past as a starter. Lopez has managed to avoid home runs with a 0.31 HR/9 — that’s unlikely to continue. He has pitched 57.1 innings and hasn’t topped 66 innings since 2019. Bassitt is a veteran who provides innings and has been hurt by walks leading to a 1.45 WHIP. He’s capable of providing solid numbers the rest of the way.
Is it time to cut Ke’Bryan Hayes? Thoughts on Nelson Velazquez or Elehuris Montero as replacements? – Peter S.
Hayes recently came back off the injured list and had a few good games. He showed signs of elevating the ball more late last season and then showed… no power to begin the season. The Statcast numbers don’t look good for Hayes, but it was early in the season and the weather on the East Coast didn’t help. Montero isn’t a better option and Velazquez could be in consideration for power. He strikes out a lot with a 29.2% strikeout rate and he is batting .219. Hayes batted .271 with 15 home runs and 10 stolen bases over 124 games last season. Considering the two options, I would stick with Hayes.
Hey Ronis! Need your help with my roster. Standard 5×5 head-to-head league. Who do you like at catcher the rest of the way: Gabriel Moreno, David Fry, Logan O’Hoppe, Shea Langeliers or Luis Campusano. Thanks! – Chris. M.
The one I prefer the most the rest of the way is O’Hoppe. There’s a lot of power potential with O’Hoppe and he isn’t a negative in batting average at .250. He is in the 85th percentile of hard-hit rate and the 71st percentile of barrel rate and has a 25.2% line drive rate. Fry has been great the last few weeks, but it’s difficult envisioning him continuing this pace.
(Top photo: Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
